According to data from Finviz, as of the close on February 9th, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) rose by 0.79%, closing at 3479.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.55%, closing at 13531.31 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.3%, closing at 2883.6 points. Northbound capital actually saw a net inflow of 485 million yuan, and the SSE achieved a three-day winning streak.

The market appears to be emerging from the sluggish trend before the Lunar New Year, and some netizens are once again getting restless. Is the A-share market about to experience a V-shaped rebound? Should we quickly increase our positions?

I advise you not to rush.

01 At present, market sentiment is still very fragile.

Reviewing the overall market trend, the ChiNext Index fell by more than 4% at one point yesterday, highlighting the instability of market sentiment.

Under the current macroeconomic environment, the first quarter will be a time for various stocks to show their true colors, and index fluctuations will be the norm.

What does this mean?

Those stocks with many stories told, bought by the public based on imagination, and those high-valued stocks face continued pressure for price corrections.

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It is too early to judge the market rebound, and blindly optimistic buying is not wise. One could easily go from being a "bottom fisher" to a "plate catcher."

In fact, when internal and external information is sensitive, definitive data is more reliable. Companies with good financial report data and stable profits, and the industries they are in, are more likely to gain market favor.It is worth noting that not all sharp declines will necessarily be followed by rebounds, especially not short-term rapid rebounds.

02 Overall, it is highly likely that macro policies will be "gradually" intensified.

Economic stability and growth is the main theme of macroeconomics in 2022, which has two implications: on one hand, policies need to be implemented to promote economic growth; on the other hand, policy benefits will not be fully disclosed in the first quarter, and policies will inevitably be intensified gradually.

In fact, the difficulty of policy implementation by relevant departments is quite high. For example, in infrastructure, it is necessary to rely on infrastructure to promote economic growth while considering the financial constraints of infrastructure efforts; for example, in real estate, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of "housing for living, not for speculation," promote the pilot of real estate tax, and avoid cooling down the real estate sector.

Therefore, policies are likely to be tested in small amounts to see how the market reacts before making adjustments. It is unrealistic to expect significant measures in the first quarter.

The current economic situation is generally cold, and the actions of relevant departments may gradually intensify (the recent actions of the Development and Reform Commission are an example). The Two Sessions in March may see larger policy adjustments, and then by May and June, it may be necessary to intensify policies to ensure that the annual economic growth rate is around 5%.

Of course, the gradual intensification of policies is not a bad thing. The market will have expectations of policy easing. If policies are released a little but not too much, it is not bad news for the capital market. If they are all released at once, it would be called "good news exhausted."

Therefore, I am optimistic about the overall economic trend in 2022, but this trend is likely to be low in the first half and high in the second half. At the current position, it is risky to blindly increase positions significantly!

03 Always maintain reverence for the market.

I maintain an attitude of both attention and detachment towards the daily ups and downs of the market.We must pay attention to the trend of the macroeconomy, understanding the underlying big trends from the rise and fall of the overall market; yet, we should avoid being led by the nose by the market's fluctuations, chasing gains and cutting losses, and engaging in short-term operations.

For market declines, do not be afraid or panic; for market rises, do not be blindly optimistic. Maintaining a set investment pace and holding for the long term, in my view, increases the probability of profit, and is safer and more reliable.

The economic situation in 2022 will inevitably be complex, and we must be prepared to deal with all kinds of black swan events.

Specifically, in terms of investment execution, I will continue to adhere to a fixed investment strategy in the consumer, healthcare, and technology sectors. Additionally, considering the possibility of a strong push in infrastructure, I will choose to increase my investment in some infrastructure sector funds.