Since the beginning of this week,at least four Federal Reserve officials have expressed their views on the path of interest rates,with most indicating that,considering the U.S.economy's greater resilience than expected,future rate cuts should be approached with more caution.

The first to take the stage was Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.On Monday,at an event held at Stanford University,he stated that recent employment and inflation data suggest that the economic slowdown may not be as severe as anticipated,and the pace of subsequent rate cuts should be more cautious than at the September meeting to ensure that secondary inflation does not occur.

"Although we do not want to overreact to these data or focus solely on them,I believe that these data indicate that monetary policy should be more cautious in the speed of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting," Waller said in his speech.

On Tuesday,Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that he expects only one more rate cut this year,but this stance is not set in stone and will be reassessed based on the latest data.

Also on the same day,San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said that as long as the data align with expectations,there is still a possibility of further rate cuts,and it would be reasonable to have one to two more rate cuts by the end of the year.

The above three individuals are current members of the U.S.Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),commonly referred to as "voters" in the market.The FOMC consists of 12 members,including 7 Federal Reserve Governors,the President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank,and 4 other Federal Reserve Bank Presidents.Apart from the Federal Reserve Governors and the President of the New York Reserve Bank,the remaining 4 seats rotate annually among the other 11 regional bank presidents.

In addition,Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated at a conference held in Buenos Aires,Argentina,on Tuesday that the job market remains strong,and inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target.It seems appropriate for the benchmark interest rate to be "further slightly reduced" in the next few quarters.

At the policy meeting at the end of September,the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in four and a half years with a significant reduction of 50 basis points.The interest rate path "dot plot" released after the meeting indicated that there might be another 50 basis points cut by the end of the year,which means a 25 basis points cut in both November and December.Recently released meeting minutes show that the main reason for the Federal Reserve's unconventional rate cut of 50 basis points was concern about the job market cooling down too quickly.

The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate level in the range of 5.25%-5.5% at the policy meeting at the end of July,but the number of new non-farm jobs announced a few days later in July was significantly lower than expected,and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%,triggering Sam's Rule,which signals an economic recession.Although the number of new non-farm jobs in August rebounded somewhat,it still fell short of expectations.

However,the most recently released data shows that the job market is not as weak as expected,with 254,000 new non-farm jobs added in September,far exceeding the market's expectation of around 150,000; the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month to 4.1%.In addition,the Department of Labor also revised the employment data for July and August,with the number of new non-farm jobs in July significantly revised up by 55,000 to 144,000.In addition to employment data,the latest inflation figures have also exceeded expectations across the board.In September,the U.S.Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year,narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month,but higher than the 2.3% anticipated by economists.After excluding the more volatile costs of food and energy,the core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year,expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.3% month-on-month,remaining unchanged from the previous value,both exceeding expectations by 0.1 percentage points.

Regarding the future path of interest rate cuts,Waller outlined three scenarios: First,if the economy develops as expected,with inflation approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target and a slight increase in unemployment,a cautious shift to a neutral stance is possible; Second,if the inflation rate falls below 2%,or if the labor market deteriorates,interest rates could be cut earlier,although this possibility is relatively small; Third,if inflation rises unexpectedly,the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts.

"However,no matter which of the above scenarios occurs,gradual interest rate cuts in 2025 are a foregone conclusion," Waller said.

Bostic stated that,in the long term,the benchmark interest rate will fall to around 3% to 3.5%,but when this level will be reached will depend on the situation in the labor market and inflation.Bostic also said that he expects the U.S.GDP growth rate to reach around 2.6% this year,but it will slow down to 2% in 2025,due to the decline in household savings.Regarding the trend of inflation,he believes there will be fluctuations,but he is quite confident about achieving the 2% target.

Daly said that the 50 basis point interest rate cut in September was an "appropriate adjustment" to the stance of monetary policy.The current policy is still restrictive and far from the ultimate goal.The Federal Reserve "must remain vigilant and act consciously" to strive for the dual goals of full employment and stable prices.

Since last week,due to the continuous better-than-expected employment and inflation in September,the market's expectations for further significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have cooled significantly.As of around 17:20 Beijing time on Wednesday,the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed that the probability of no interest rate cut in November was 5.8%,up 2.8 percentage points from the previous day,and the probability of a 25 basis point cut was 94.2%.

Ryan Sweet,Chief U.S.Economist at Oxford Economics,said in a research report last week that the better-than-expected CPI increase in September does not mean that inflation is accelerating again,nor will it prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting.The Federal Reserve needs to continue to normalize interest rates to keep the economy on the path of a "soft landing."

Bai Xue,Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng International Credit Assessment Co.,Ltd.,also said that she expects the Federal Reserve to continue the interest rate cut process in November,and it is highly likely that it will cut by 25 basis points.She pointed out that the September U.S.CPI data shows that the inflation level has been declining for more than six months,and the housing price,which has the largest weight in core inflation,is also in a downward channel,and the overall deflation process is relatively smooth.The rebound in core CPI growth in September was mainly driven by transportation and medical prices,and used car prices,which is not enough to form a basis for "reflation." In addition,looking at the employment data that the Federal Reserve currently pays more attention to,affected by hurricanes and strikes at Boeing,the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S.at the beginning of October has exceeded expectations for two consecutive weeks,which may weaken the October employment data.

Ed Yardeni,President and Senior Analyst of Yardeni Research,is one of the "no interest rate cut" bets.He told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that economic data will continue to be better than expected,and it is wrong for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates this year.

"Although the Federal Reserve has indeed made great progress in reducing inflation indicators so far,the task is not really completed.If monetary policy is overly relaxed,inflation may make a comeback.(After a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September) The Federal Reserve is already ahead,and there is no need for further interest rate cuts this year." Yardeni said.